Tag: Taliban

Categories
Weekly Summaries

6th of September – 11th of September

Uncertainty in Nicaragua

The current President of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, is taking steps to ensure that he will win the elections in November again. The New York Times writes that there is no “credible challenger” and that Ortega is “turning Nicaragua into a police state.” Seven candidates have been jailed or put under house arrest since June alone and people from all backgrounds — from millionaire banker to a decorated general to a low-profile provincial activist — have been targeted.

Other News

  • The U.S. remembered the 9/11 attacks that happened 20 years ago.
  • Maria Kolesnikova, a Belarusian opposition figure, was sentenced to 11 years in prison during a trial in Minsk last week
  • In a ruling last week, Mexico’s Supreme Court decided that making abortion a crime was “unconstitutional”. Nonetheless, abortion is still not available to most of the Mexican female population.
  • El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as a legal tender, the first country to do so
  • The Taliban named an acting cabinet last week. However, the lack of women and some former leaders from the Taliban’s 1990s regime have raised alarm bells in other countries.
Categories
Weekly Summaries

30th of August – 5th of September

U.S. Forces Left Afghanistan

The last U.S. forces left Afghanistan last Monday. Their departure ended a 20-year long occupation. The war in Afghanistan cost the U.S. over $2 trillion and left more than 170,000 people dead. Shortly before midnight, the last 5 American cargo jets left the Kabul airport, leaving behind many Afghans, including former members of the security forces. The Taliban and fighters celebrated the U.S. departure and gunfire could be heard across Kabul. A day later, President Biden once again defended the withdrawal, claiming that it was a choice “between leaving or escalating” the situation.

Other News

  • The return of a Napoleonic general, Gen. Charles Etienne Gudin, was supposed to improve relations between France and Russia, two countries that have long had difficult diplomatic relations. However, when the ceremony took place, the Presidents were not to be seen. 
  • The leader of Guinea’s special forces led a coup, announcing on state television that the constitution and government had been dissolved. Whether he will be successful is still uncertain.
  • Less than a year after he started office, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of Japan said that he would not seek re-election
Categories
News

The fate of Afghanistan’s economy after the Taliban takeover

Introduction

Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world due to the destruction of its limited infrastructure through wars, predominantly after the Soviet Invasion (1979- 1989). Along with political instability and high dependency on foreign aid, this state of depravity is perpetuated.

The biggest news in the world from the past few weeks stems from the Taliban takeover of Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, and effectively replacing the Afghanistan government. With most government officials and Former President Ashraf Ghani fleeing the country, the Taliban has now taken complete control of the presidential palace and declared that the war is over. How will this impact the economic conditions of Afghanistan?

Foreign Investments

As mentioned earlier, Afghanistan is greatly dependent on foreign aid. However, international aid flows are under a cloud of profound uncertainty. German Foreign Minister Heike Maas told the ZDF broadcasting program, “We will not give another cent if the Taliban takes over the country and introduces Sharia law.”(Sharia Law is the Islamic legal system, which governs religious rituals and aspects of day-to-day life, including finance and banking).

Moreover, following recent unrest and the toppling of the government, investor confidence in Afghanistan could drop to an all-time low.

 So, now that the Taliban has taken complete control of Kabul, international trade and business will soon come to a halt as the militant group has stopped all exports and imports, particularly with India. India imports about 85% of its dry fruits from Afghanistan. The Federation of India Export Organisation expressed concern that dry fruit prices may go up in the coming days due to the turmoil in Afghanistan.

 Hence, the Afghanistan economy has the potential to experience a significant downfall, since international aid accounted for ~43% of their GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2020, per the World Bank. Thus, considering the following in terms of foreign investment, the nation has a bleak future.

Mineral Resources

According to WION, while Afghanistan may be one of the poorest nations in the world, it is a region of vast mineral resources. In 2010, American geologists said the resources in this region are worth about – $1 trillion.

Valuable minerals such as iron ore, copper, gold, lithium, sulphur, and various gemstones, to name a few. A 2010 report of Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines recorded the country’s copper resource at almost 30 million tonnes. Further, another report in the same year said that 28.5 million tonnes of copper lay hidden in undiscovered deposits, bringing the total to roughly 60 million tonnes. Given current rates at the London Metal Exchange, the mineral resources would amount to ~$500 million. Moreover, Afghanistan has a gold resource of at least 2700 kilograms, making gold the most favourable hedge ever since inflation. (Inflation is the rate at which the general level for the price of goods & services rise, resulting in a sustained drop in the purchasing power).

However, one mineral has particularly a striking potential. Lithium is a metal used in the batteries of mobile devices and electric cars. The latter application will be crucial in the future, as the automobile sector is quickly transitioning towards zero-carbon forms of transport.

Today, lithium is also facing unprecedented demand, with an annual market growth of 20% compared to just 5-6% a few years ago. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for lithium is expected to grow by over 40 times by 2040. Additionally, The Pentagon memo designated Afghanistan as “The Saudi Arabia of Lithium”.

China Takes Interest?

Back in 1996, when the Taliban first took control of Afghanistan, China refused to recognize their rule and left their embassy shut for years. This time around, Beijing has been one the first to embrace the Islamist militants next door.

But, what prompted such a change of heart?

Director of the China Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center Yun Sun said: “Twenty years ago, China was not a global power and what was happening in Afghanistan did not bother China.”

Today, China commands an economy worth $14.7 trillion—more than 17 times its size in 1996—in addition to a massive trade-and-infrastructure initiative that stretches across the Eurasian landmass. Although China has not officially sought ties with the militant group, there are hints that it will provide financial assistance to Afghanistan.

 China is currently eyeing the mineral resources of Afghanistan, which are worth $1 trillion. Moreover, the large reserves of copper and lithium specifically will be highly beneficial for the Chinese electronics industry.

The Taliban will need significant assistance to rebuild Afghanistan. Because Western countries and financial institutions are unlikely to assist, China, with its massive reserves of capital and proximity to Afghanistan, can play a supporting role in the survival of a future Taliban government.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Afghanistan may have a chance to grow its economy under such grave circumstances with Chinese assistance.

The exploitation of the rare earth minerals would bring foreign currency to Afghanistan, whose weak economy relies on subsistence agriculture, services, and international aid. However, some observers are calling not to overestimate China’s interests in Afghanistan.

Their statements imply that the idea of a China which would get its hands on the mineral wealth of Afghanistan is a fantasy. Researchers say that the recent investments that China will specifically be for the exploitation of pine nuts (Pine nuts are one of the more expensive nuts on the market). It can be said that Chinese interest and collaboration with Afghanistan under Taliban control may be short-lived.

Sources


1.What next for Afghanistan’s economy? – BBC News
2. Financial News – Forex News, Stocks Market News (fxempire.com)
3. The fate of Afghanistan economy under Taliban rule | Business News (timesnownews.com
4. Minerals worth trillion dollars: So really how big is Afghanistan’s economy under Taliban control? (msn.com)
5. What next for Afghanistan’s economy? – BRIGHT NEWSROOM
6. Why China is interested in Afghanistan (linkedin.com)
7.Taliban to reap $1 trillion worth of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth – Frontline (thehindu.com)

Categories
News

Taliban Rises to Power Again

Introduction

What are the Taliban? The Taliban is a militant terror group that ruled Afghanistan under the command of Mullah Omar (founder and the first leader of the Taliban) from 1996 – 2001 until they were toppled by the U.S. forces. In response to the 9/11 attack, the US launched “Operation Enduring Freedom,” which was aimed at all the suspects of the attack — mainly Al Qaeda and Taliban. Due to this, the Taliban was overthrown easily. The ideology followed by the Taliban is extremist. They aim to install Islamist rule all across Afghanistan. They have almost 85,000 fighters according to recent NATO estimates.

Timeline

Early1990s 

● Taliban emerged in Pashtun areas straddling Pakistan and Afghanistan 

1995 

● Captured the province of ‘Herat’ 

27 SEP 1996 

● Taliban captured the Afghan capital, Kabul, and the regime of President Burhanuddin Rabbani was overthrown 

● Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was established by Mullah Omar 

1998 

● 90 percent of Afghanistan was captured 

● They enforced their own Islamic or Sharia Law once they were in power 

2001 

● Al-Qaeda, led by Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan, carries out the largest terror attack ever conducted on US soil (9/11) 

● A US-led coalition bombs Taliban and al-Qaeda facilities in Afghanistan. Targets include Kabul, Kandahar and Jalalabad. 

(7th of October) 

● Fall of Kabul; the Northern Alliance, a group of anti-Taliban rebels backed by coalition forces, enters Kabul as the Taliban fled the city. (13th of November) 

2004 

● New constitution, 26th of January; the constitution paves the way for presidential elections in October 2004.

● Hamid Karzai, the leader of the Popalzai Durrani tribe, becomes the first president under the new constitution. He serves two five-year terms as president. 

2006 

● UK troops deployed to Helmand, May 2006 

2009 

● 17th of February 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama approves a major increase in the number of troops sent to Afghanistan. 

2011 

● Osama bin Laden killed, 2nd of May 2011 

2013 

● Death of Mullah Omar, 23rd of April 2013 

2014 

● NATO ends combat operations, 28th of December 2014 

2015 

● Taliban resurgence 

2020 

● The US and the Taliban sign an “agreement for bringing peace” to Afghanistan, in Doha, Qatar on the 29th of February. The US and Nato allies agree to withdraw all troops within 14 months if the militants uphold the deal.

2021 ● On the 16th of August, the Taliban returned to power, In just over a month, the Taliban swept across Afghanistan, taking control of towns and cities all over the country, including Kabul. Afghan security forces collapsed in the face of the Taliban advance.

What is happening in Afghanistan now?

On April 14, US President Joe Biden announced that the US forces would withdraw by September 11th, 2021. In May 2021, foreign forces started to withdraw from the country and the Taliban stepped up to defeat the Western-backed government. The Taliban captured 26 provincial capitals in just 10 days, while Kabul fell in 1 day and the Taliban were thus able to take control over Afghanistan again. On August 15th, Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani, who was backed by the U.S., resigned and fled to Oman.

On August 14th, Joe Biden made a statement about the Afghanistan crisis and what role the U.S. will play : 

“Over the past days, I have been in close contact with my national security team to give them directions on how to protect our interests and values as we end our military mission in Afghanistan. 

First, based on the recommendations, I have authorized the deployment of approximately 5,000 U.S. troops and an orderly and safe evacuation of Afghans who helped our troops during our mission and those at special risk from the Taliban advance. 

Second, I have ordered our Armed Forces and our Intelligence Community to ensure that we will maintain the capability and the vigilance to address future terrorist threats from Afghanistan. 

Third, I have directed the Secretary of State to support President Ghani and other Afghan leaders as they seek to prevent further bloodshed and pursue a political settlement.

Fourth, we have conveyed to the Taliban representatives in Doha that any action on their part on the ground in Afghanistan, that puts U.S. personnel or our mission at risk there, will be met with a swift and strong U.S. military response. Fifth, I have placed Ambassador Tracey Jacobson in charge of a whole-of-government effort to process, transport, and relocate Afghan Special Immigrant Visa applicants and other Afghan allies. Our hearts go out to the brave Afghan men and women who are now at risk. We are working to evacuate thousands of those who helped our cause and their families.”

What does the Taliban’s return mean for the citizens of Afghanistan?

Questions are being asked about how the group will govern the country, and what their rule means for women, human rights, and political freedom in Afghanistan. Its leadership says it wants peace and an inclusive government that is compatible with Islamic law or the Sharia Law, but many Afghans are skeptical about this and thousands have already fled the country, fearing a return to a brutal and repressive regime.

A brief about the Sharia law: 

Sharia is Islam’s legal system. It is the set of laws that govern the daily lives of Muslim people and it is based on a combination of the Quran and the teachings from the prophet Muhammad. 

Taliban officials have repeatedly tried to assure Afghan citizens, particularly women, that this time the rule will be different. Earlier this week, the Taliban urged women to join its government. Some representatives have also said that women will be allowed to work and study. When they were last in power, the Taliban had made full burqa compulsory but this time they said that women will not be required to wear a full Burqa, and can opt for just the hijab (headscarf). Well, what is the actual situation on the ground? Despite their assurances, parts of the country are seeing a return to the repressive old order, women in some provinces are not allowed to leave their home without a male relative escorting them and were also denied access to universities in some places, girls have been banned from returning to schools and there have been reports of several forced marriages. Smartphones and television have been banned, young men are being forced to join their ranks. Reporters and peace activists who raised their voices against the Taliban face risk to their lives. In the current situation in Afghanistan, chaos has been created everywhere, Airports and ATMs were mobbed with thousands of people trying to escape the country. According to reports, 5 civilians have been shot at the terminal, 3 people were also seen holding on to the wheel of a US plane flying out of Kabul.

How are other countries and the UN reacting?

United Nations: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged the Taliban to exercise utmost restraint to protect lives 

China: Released a statement that it is looking to deepen “ friendly and cooperative” relations with Afghanistan.

Pakistan: Imran Khan, made a statement which was “ The Afghans broke shackles of slavery” 

Germany: Released a statement that U.S, troops withdrawal was the “biggest NATO Debacle”.

India: Union minister of state for External Affairs, Meenakshi Lekhi, said that India wants peace all over the world as India continues evacuation exercises to rescue Indians currently in Afghanistan.

Why was the Taliban’s renewed rule over Afghanistan inevitable?

Over the past 20 years, the U.S. has poured trillions of dollars into Afghanistan to oust the Taliban, an effort that was clearly unsuccessful. But a look at the country’s strategic geographic location and the politics of the region tells us that this outcome was inevitable. Afghanistan is strategically located between central and south Asia – a region rich in oil and natural gas. It has long faced constant meddling from the Soviet Union/Russia, the UK, the U.S., Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, and Pakistan.

Sources

  1. https://scroll.in/article/1002900/talibans-victory-in-afghanistan-was-inevitable-even-after-two-decades-of-american-intervention
  2. https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2021/8/17/what-does-the-talibans-return-to-power-mean-for-afghanistan
  3. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11451718
  4. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-27307249
  5. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/14/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-afghanistan/

Categories
Weekly Summaries

9th of August – 15th of August

The Taliban take over Kabul

On Sunday, the Taliban took over Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital city. The U.S. has had a heavy military presence in Afghanistan for twenty years, which now came to an abrupt ending. The collapse of Kabul comes a lot faster than even many experts had expected, meaning that most Afghans now have no way of getting out. President Ashraf Ghani fled the country to Uzbekistan after the finance minister already fled last week. Since then a council of Afghan officials has opened negotiations with the Taliban to discuss the takeover, according to the New York Times. Troops from the U.S. and other Western countries, which had been stationed in Afghanistan, started withdrawing in May. Around that time the Taliban started their offensive to take over Afghanistan. What the future of Afghanistan and the people who live there will look like remains uncertain, but prospects point to the worst.

Other News

  • Michael Calvey, an American businessman, was sentenced to a suspended sentence “for embezzlement charges” for 5 and a half years, according to the New York Times
  • After facing accusations of sexually assaulting 11 women, New York’s Governor Andrew Cuomo has resigned
  • The cost of coffee beans is up by almost 44% in 2021 compared to 2020, according to the New York Times

Categories
Weekly Summaries

24th of May – 30th of May

A possible case of plane hijacking by Belarus

Last weekend, a Ryanair plane on the way from Athens to Vilnius was forced to land in Minsk (Belarus’ capital) by a fighter jet, according to the New York Times. On board was Roman Protasevich, a leading opposition journalist who currently lives in exile in Lithuania. Upon landing, he was immediately arrested on what the New York Times calls “charges of inciting hatred and mass disorder.” He will face imprisonment of more than 12 years if he is found guilty. The international response has been critical of Belarus, with Greece and Lithuania both describing the scenario “hijacking by the Belarusian government” and the E.U. “urging” airlines to avoid flying over Belarus’ airspace. Russia, meanwhile, has stood by Lukashenko’s side.

Other News

  • The former leader of Myanmar, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, has been seen in public at the court for the first time since the military coup that detained her, ending her term as leader of Myanmar. If she is found guilty of the many charges she faces, she may be imprisoned for life.
  • The one-year anniversary of George Floyd’s killing was last Wednesday.
  • A cable car crash in Italy killed 14 people. Police have now arrested three people, who may be related to the crash.
  • Just as the last of the remaining U.S. troops in Afghanistan are withdrawing, 25 rural Afghan government outposts as well as bases in four provinces have surrendered to the Taliban, according to the New York Times.
  • Just days after Mount Nyiragongo erupted deadly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, another potential eruption forced the evacuation of Goma.
Categories
Weekly Summaries

5th of April – 11th of April

Israel’s Prime Minister attempts to form a government

The President of Israel, Reuven Rivlin, is giving Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a chance to remain in office. Mr. Netanyahu is currently facing a trial on charges of corruption, which makes for an unusual situation. Israel has held four elections in only two years, and Mr. Netanyahu has not achieved a majority at any of them. Now, however, there is a chance for him to form a government with the support of another party, although his political enemies are also in the process of forming a coalition.

Other news:

  • Just weeks before the planned withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, officials are negotiating with the Taliban in the attempt of making a deal
  • A train derailed in Taiwan, killing at least 50 people. So far it is still unclear what caused the incident to happen.
  • Talks between the USA and Iran are currently taking place in Vienna regarding the 2015 nuclear deal.