Ukraine – ECONIR WEB

Introduction

Ever since Ukraine was attacked on 24 February, the Georgian people have expressed their full support for the besieged country through protests, volunteering, donations, etc. Ukrainian flags can be seen hung on every balcony, window and door in the downtown area, the suburbs, and so on. Every evening, thousands gather in the city center to display solidarity with Ukraine.

Parallels between the invasion of Ukraine and Georgia (2008)

For many Georgians, including myself, this invasion of Ukraine is eerily similar to that of the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. The parallels are indismisible. During the 2008 war, Russia recognised two Georgian breakaway regions – Abkhazia and South Ossetia – and stationed its troops there. Since then, Tbilisi has pushed even more strongly for closer integration with the West, via closer ties to the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), even if membership in neither body seemed immediately likely. Similarly, in Ukraine in 2022, Russia recognized the independence of two breakaway regions, Luhansk and Donetsk. In order to “defend” the two proclaimed independent states, Russia then conducted a “special military operation,” which lead to the current situation.

Georgia’s reaction

Despite these parallels and the broad public backing for Ukraine, the Georgian government has tiptoed around the crisis, fearing the consequences of provoking its powerful northern neighbor, Russia. The day after Russia invaded, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili said his government would refuse to join any Western sanctions on Moscow, dismissing them as unproductive. Despite citizens’ anger, Gharibashvili has remained cautious. This is partly due to the real economic crisis that could occur if Georgia imposes sanctions, as well as the Georgian Dream Party’s proclivity to support Russian actions. But despite the government’s hesitance, its divisions with the Kremlin are increasingly on display. On 28 February, the National Bank of Georgia said it would act “in accordance with the international resolutions and standards and cannot and will not help evading implementing these sanctions”. On 3 March, Georgia, along with Moldova, followed Ukraine’s lead in filing a formal application for EU membership.

While building more contacts with Russia, Georgia has been feeling increasingly frustrated with the lack of real prospects of joining the EU or NATO. Since 2014, when Georgia signed an Association Agreement with the EU, it started adjusting its laws and economic policies to meet Europe’s criteria for accession. In an attempt to build support among NATO powers for its bid to join the alliance, Georgia kept its troops in Afghanistan until the very last weeks before the U.S. withdrawal. But these investments were not enough to overcome resistance among European and U.S. officials and politicians who see the downsides of Georgian membership in either organization as outweighing any benefits. Many existing members argue that Georgian membership would anger the Kremlin and deepen its conflict with the West, reducing rather than increasing security for all.

Conclusion

Georgians can feel the agony that a Russian invasion brings, having fought our own war with Russia almost fourteen years ago. But many in the country’s leadership believe saber-rattling and diplomatic protests could put Georgia high on President Vladimir Putin’s radar, leading to problems in the long-term. Hours before Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, a senior Georgian official told civil society representatives that the leadership often has to choose between a “bad option and a worse option. Unfortunately, this is our reality”.Russia can easily, cheaply and effectively harm Georgian stability by leveraging its influence in the breakaway regions whose pursuit of self-rule Moscow champions and where its troops are already stationed. Its border guards patrol the South Ossetian line of separation with Georgia, including within a few hundred meters of a major highway linking Tbilisi to Georgia’s Black Sea coast and in close proximity to the Baku-Tbilisi-Supsa pipeline that delivers oil from Azerbaijan to Europe and elsewhere. The line of separation in this area seems to be creeping steadily forward into the Georgian government-held areas – and there may be little Georgians can do about it.

These aggressive tactics make the Tbilisi leadership wary. A small shift of the line that brings more territory under the control of the breakaway regions could displace thousands of people. Even more worrying to Georgian officials is the possibility that Moscow could exploit any small incident along the line to resume a military invasion and take even more Georgian territory. Georgia, like several other former Soviet states, can ill afford, militarily or economically, to pick a fight with Russia. Despite the show of Western resolve over Ukraine, as far as sanctions and military equipment are concerned, Georgia, smaller, less significant and farther away, fears being left alone to face Russia.

Sources

Introduction

This year, on the 24th of February, the world witnessed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. After rising tensions, the Russian Government decided to start the ‘special military operation’ which has since claimed thousands of lives. As a result of this conflict, many countries were quick to impose strict economic sanctions on Russia, which have already had their effect on the Russian economy. But what are the consequences of such sanctions on daily life in Russia?

What sanctions have been imposed?

Many countries, among them the US, UK, New Zealand, and the EU member countries, immediately imposed different sanctions to try and stop Russia from further military actions. The more or less immediate reaction of the US government was to ban the export of certain technologies to Russia, which would “make it harder… to modernize [Russia’s] oil refineries.” (Al Jazeera) However, one of the most significant actions the US took was banning Russian oil, which is one of Russia’s biggest exports. Among many others, the EU froze the European assets of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. Russia’s ally country, Belarus, also suffered some consequences as the EU banned imports of products from tobacco, mineral fuels, cement, steel, iron, etc. Many different companies such as IKEA, Spotify, and Apple have also decided to leave Russia. Among them are also Visa and Mastercard who have suspended operations in Russia. This has already had its effects on the Russian economy because people are unable to complete transactions.

Impacts on daily life in Russia

When the war started and the sanctions were imposed, the Russian rouble “plummeted…, leading many retailers to raise their prices.” People living in Moscow believe that while food may not disappear, prices will probably rise exponentially. “On 20 February I ordered groceries for 5,500 roubles [about $57; £44] and now the same basket costs 8,000,” says an EU citizen living in Moscow. While certain retailers are simply limiting the amount of products people can buy, others have “agreed to limit price rises on some staples to 5%”. Moreover, there has been a more than 10% increase in the prices of smartphones and televisions, but many of them quickly sold out before the companies left the Russian market.

International impacts

Perhaps one of the most significant sanctions was one imposed by the US when it banned imports of oil and gas from Russia. The UK has also followed in the US’s steps and has started to “phase out oil imports”. The European Union said it would “move to end its reliance on Russian gas”.

Why is this important? Along with Iran and Qatar, Russia is home to the largest reserves of natural gas. Half of the world’s natural gas reserves in 2020 were accounted for by the three aforementioned countries. In 2021, 45% of the EU’s gas imports and 40% of its entire gas consumption came from Russia. Despite the EU and other countries announcing plans for ending their reliance on Russian oil and gas, it seems as though these sanctions will have certain long-lasting consequences. As soon as the US stopped such imports from Russia, oil and gas prices started to rise and the same is expected in other countries that have imposed similar bans.

Conclusion

Sanctions imposed on Russia have so far affected its citizens much more than the people with the power to stop the war in Ukraine. However, their long-lasting effects on the conflict remain to be seen. It is true though, that bans on Russian oil and gas from some of the major countries in the world will have great consequences for the world’s economy as people are realizing their economic dependence on Russia and governments who support Ukraine will try to distance themselves from such policies and trade in the future. Daily life in Russia, although already hard, is expected to get harder, as products disappear and soon enough, jobs might also vanish. In this case, Russia will have a very hard time getting its economy back on track and the lives of its citizens back to normal.

Sources

Al Jazeera Staff. “Infographic: How Much of Your Country’s Gas Comes from Russia?” Www.aljazeera.com, 17 Mar. 2022, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/17/infographic-how-much-of-your-countrys-gas-comes-from-russia-interactive. Accessed 19 Mar. 2022.

—. “List of Sanctions against Russia after Ukraine’s Invasion.” Www.aljazeera.com, 3 Mar. 2022, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/25/list-of-sanctions-on-russia-after-invasion.

—. “US Bans Russian Oil: What Is next for Oil and Gas Prices?” Aljazeera.com, Al Jazeera, 9 Mar. 2022, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/9/us-bans-russian-oil-what-does-this-mean-for-oil-prices.

Badshah, Nadeem. “Visa and Mastercard Will Both Suspend Operations in Russia.” The Guardian, 5 Mar. 2022, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/visa-and-mastercard-will-both-suspend-operations-in-russia. Accessed 19 Mar. 2022.

Hanbury, Mary, et al. “Here Are the Major US and European Companies Pulling out of Russia Following the Invasion of Ukraine.” Business Insider, 10 Mar. 2022, http://www.businessinsider.com/list-all-the-companies-pulling-out-of-russia-ukraine-war-2022-3#28-tiktok-28. Accessed 19 Mar. 2022.

Shamina, Olga, and Jessy Kaner. “Russia Sanctions: How the Measures Have Changed Daily Life.” BBC News, 13 Mar. 2022, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60647543.